Burden of Stroke Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperature in 204 Countries and Territories: A Population-Based Study, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature needs more attention with dramatic climate change. The aim of this study was to estimate the global burden and distribution characteristics of the burden. METHODS: In this ecological study, we collected data from the Climate Research Unit Gridded Time Series, the World Bank databases, and the Global Burden of Diseases study to estimate the distribution of burden. We used the joinpoint model, decomposition analysis, age-period-cohort model, panel data analysis, and health inequality analysis to assess the different types of stroke burden attributable to different climatic conditions. RESULTS: The burden of stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature continued to grow, and aging was a key factor in this increase. In 2019, 521,031 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 402,433-663,996) deaths and 9,423,649 (95% UI 7,207,660-12,055,172) disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] attributable to stroke due to nonoptimal temperature were recorded globally. Globally, men (age-standardized mortality rate [ASMR] 7.70, 95% UI 5.80-9.73; age-standardized DALY rate [ASDR] 139.69, 95% UI 102.96-178.54 in 2019) had a heavier burden than women (ASMR 5.89, 95% UI 4.50-7.60; ASDR 96.02, 95% UI 72.62-123.85 in 2019). Central Asia (ASMR 18.12, 95% UI 13.40-24.53; ASDR 327.35, 95% UI 240.24-440.61 in 2019) had the heaviest burden at the regional level. In the national level, North Macedonia (ASMR 32.97, 95% UI 20.57-47.44 in 2019) and Mongolia (ASDR 568.54, 95% UI 242.03-1,031.14 in 2019) had the highest ASMR/ASDR, respectively. Low temperature currently contributes to the main burden (deaths 474,002, 95% UI 355,077-606,537; DALYs 8,357,198, 95% UI 6,186,217-10,801,911 attributable to low temperature vs deaths 48,030, 95% UI 5,630-104,370; DALYs 1,089,329, 95% UI 112,690-2,375,345 attributable to high temperature in 2019). However, the burden due to high temperature has increased rapidly, especially among people aged older than 10 years, and was disproportionately concentrated in low sociodemographic index (SDI) regions such as Africa. In addition, the rapid increase in the stroke burden due to high temperature in Central Asia also requires special attention. DISCUSSION: This is the first study to assess the global stroke burden attributed to nonoptimal temperature. The dramatic increase in the burden due to high temperature requires special attention, especially in low-SDI countries.

Epidemiology of acute hepatitis C and hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis in reproductive-age women, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study.

Background: The current study uniquely focuses on the global incidence and temporal trends of acute hepatitis C (AHC) and hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) from 1990-2019. The risk of vertical transmission and adverse perinatal outcomes associated with HCV infection underscores the importance of prioritising these women in HCV prevention efforts. Methods: Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease 2019 data, we calculated age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and assessed temporal trends via the average annual percent change from joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort model was employed to understand further the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Results: Over the 30 years, global incidences of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis in reproductive-age women increased by 46.45 and 72.74%, respectively. The ASIR of AHC was highest in low sociodemographic index regions but showed a declining trend. Conversely, the ASIR of HCV-related cirrhosis displayed unfavourable trends in low, low-middle, and high sociodemographic index regions. Special attention is necessary for sub-Saharan Africa, high-income North America, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia due to their high incidence rates or increasing trends of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis. Notably, the age-period-cohort model suggests a recent resurgence in AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis risk. Conclusions: The current study is the first to thoroughly evaluate the trends of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis among reproductive-age women, shedding light on previously unexplored aspects of HCV epidemiology. Our findings identify critical areas where health care systems must adapt to the changing dynamics of HCV infection. The detailed stratification by region and nation further enables the development of localised prevention and treatment strategies.

Trends in the global burden of vision loss among the older adults from 1990 to 2019.

Purpose: To quantify the global impact of vision impairment in individuals aged 65 years and older between 1990 and 2019, segmented by disease, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Methods: Using the Global Burden of Diseases 2019 (GBD 2019) dataset, a retrospective demographic evaluation was undertaken to ascertain the magnitude of vision loss over this period. Metrics evaluated included case numbers, prevalence rates per 100,000 individuals, and shifts in prevalence rates via average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). Results: From 1990 to 2019, vision impairment rates for individuals aged 65 years and older increased from 40,027.0 (95% UI: 32,232.9-49,945.1) to 40,965.8 (95% UI: 32,911-51,358.3, AAPC: 0.11). YLDs associated with vision loss saw a significant decrease, moving from 1713.5 (95% UI: 1216.2-2339.7) to 1579.1 (95% UI: 1108.3-2168.9, AAPC: -0.12). Gender-based evaluation showed males had lower global prevalence and YLD rates compared to females. Cataracts and near vision impairment were the major factors, raising prevalence by 6.95 and 2.11%, respectively. Cataract prevalence in high-middle SDI regions and near vision deficits in high SDI regions significantly influenced YLDs variation between 1990 and 2019. Conclusion: Over the past three decades, there has been a significant decrease in the vision impairment burden in individuals aged 65 and older worldwide. However, disparities continue, based on disease type, regional SDI, and age brackets. Enhancing eye care services, both in scope and quality, is crucial for reducing the global vision impairment burden among the older adults.

Global burden of osteoarthritis in adults aged 30 to 44 years, 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a common orthopedic disorder, and its incidence has been increasing among young adults in recent years. The purpose of this study is to investigate the global, regional, and national trends in OA burden and variation among individuals aged 30 to 44 from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data on the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) related to OA were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 among individuals aged 30 to 44. These measures were stratified by gender, region, country, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Additionally, we analyzed YLDs attributable to risk factors. RESULTS: In 2019, there were a total of 32,971,701 cases of OA among individuals aged 30 to 44 years worldwide, with an additional 7,794,008 new incident cases reported. OA of the knee was the primary contributor to both incidence and prevalence rates over the past three decades. From 1990 to 2019, both males and females in countries with high SDI and high-middle SDI showed upward trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLDs rates. In 2019, the United States of America had the highest age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLDs rates. Elevated body-mass index (BMI) was found to be the most prevalent risk factor for osteoarthritis-related YLDs. Age-standardized YLDs rates were positively associated with SDI. CONCLUSIONS: OA remains a significant disease burden on individuals aged 30 to 44, with modifiable risk factors such as unhealthy lifestyle and obesity representing key targets for future interventions aimed at reducing the impact of this condition on younger generations.

Spatial-temporal trends in leprosy burden and its associations with socioeconomic and physical geographic factors: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of our study was to assess the multiscalar changes in leprosy burden and its associated risk factors over the last three decades. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted an in-depth examination of leprosy's spatial-temporal trends at multiple geographical scale (global, regional, and national), utilizing information from Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019). METHODS: Incidence and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leprosy were determined, with countries categorized based on leprosy incidence changes. We examined socioeconomic and physical geography influences on leprosy incidence via Spearman correlation analysis, using ternary phase diagrams to reveal the synergetic effects on leprosy occurrence. RESULTS: Globally, incident cases of leprosy decreased by 27.86% from 1990 to 2019, with a reduction in ASIR (EAPC = -2.53), yet trends were not homogeneous across regions. ASIR and EAPC correlated positively with sociodemographic index (SDI), and an ASIR growth appeared in high SDI region (EAPC = 3.07). Leprosy burden was chiefly distributed in Tropical Latin America, Oceania, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Negative correlations were detected between the incidence of leprosy and factors of SDI, GDP per capita, urban population to total population, and precipitation, whereas the number of refugee population, temperature, and elevation showed opposite positive results. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a global decline in leprosy over the past three decades, the disparities of disease occurrence at regional and national scales still persisted. Socioeconomic and physical geographic factors posed an obvious influence on the transmission risk of leprosy. The persistence and regional fluctuations of leprosy incidence necessitate the ongoing dynamic and multilayered control strategies worldwide in combating this ancient disease.

Rising trend and regional disparities of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient low temperature, 1990-2019: An analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

Background: Previous studies on the effect of global warming on the global burden of disease have mainly focussed on the impact of high temperatures, thereby providing limited evidence of the effect of lower temperatures. Methods: We adopted a three-stage analysis approach using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. First, we explored the global burden of disease attributable to low temperatures, examining variations by gender, age, cause, region, and country. Second, we analysed temporal trends in low-temperature-related disease burdens from 1990 to 2019 by meta-regression. Finally, we fitted a mixed-effects meta-regression model to explore the effect modification of country-level characteristics. Results: In 2019, low temperatures were responsible for 2.92% of global deaths and 1.03% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), corresponding to a death rate of 21.36 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 18.26, 24.73) and a DALY rate of 335 (95% UI = 280, 399) per 100 000 population. Most of the deaths (85.12%) and DALYs (94.38%) attributable to low temperatures were associated with ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In the last three decades, we observed an upward trend for the annual number of attributable deaths (P < 0.001) and a downward trend for the rates of death (P < 0.001) and DALYs (P < 0.001). The disease burden associated with low temperatures varied considerably among regions and countries, with higher burdens observed in regions with middle or high-middle socio-demographic indices, as well as countries with higher gross domestic product per capita and a larger proportion of ageing population. Conclusions: Our findings emphasise the significance of raising public awareness and prioritising policies to protect global population health from the adverse effects of low temperatures, even in the face of global warming. Particular efforts should be targeted towards individuals with underlying diseases (e.g. cardiovascular diseases) and vulnerable countries or regions (e.g. Central Asia and central Europe).

Burden of neck pain in general population of China, 1990-2019: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: Neck pain has become very common in China and has greatly affected individuals, families, and society in general. In this study, we aimed to report on the rates and trends of the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) caused by neck pain in the general population of China from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) study to estimate the number and age standardised rates per 100 000 population of neck pain point prevalence, annual incidence, and YLDs in 33 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions of China, stratified by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. We then compared these estimates with other G20 countries. Results: There were 6.80 × 107 patients with neck pain in 2019, presenting an increase from 3.79 × 107 in 1990. Likewise, the national age-standardised point prevalence increased slightly from 3.53% in 1990 to 3.57% in 2019. The YLDs increased by 78.08%, from 3814 × 103 in 1990 to 6792 × 103 in 2019. The age-standardised YLDs rate increased 1.50% from 352.84 in 1990 to 358.10 in 2019. The point prevalence of neck pain in 2019 was higher in females compared with males. These estimates were all above the global average level and increased more rapidly among G20 countries from 1990 to 2019. We generally observed a positive association between age-standardised YLD rates for neck pain and SDI, suggesting the burden is higher at higher sociodemographic indices. Conclusions: Neck pain is a serious public health problem in the general population in China, especially in its central and western regions, with an overall increasing trend in the last three decades. This is possibly related to changes of people's lifestyles and work patterns due to improvements in societal well-being and technology. Raising awareness of risk factors for neck pain in the general population and establishing effective preventive and treatment strategies could help reduce the future burden of neck disorders.

Assessing and projecting the global burden of thyroid cancer, 1990-2030: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: This study aims to assess the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thyroid cancer between 1990 and 2030. Methods: Our study analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data from 204 countries, spanning 1990-2019. It focused on age-standardised thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), using the sociodemographic index (SDI) for assessing socioeconomic levels. Generalised additive models (GAMs) projected thyroid cancer trends for 2020-2030. Results: The global burden of thyroid cancer is predicted to increase significantly from 1990 to 2030. The number of thyroid cancer incidence cases is projected to rise from 233 846.64 in 2019 to 305 078.08 by 2030, representing an approximate 30.46% increase. The ASIR (age-standardised incidence rate) is expected to continue its upward trend (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = 0.83). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) for thyroid cancer is projected to decline in both genders, more notably in women (EAPC = -0.34) compared to men (EAPC = -0.17). The burden of disease escalates with advancing age, with significant regional disparities. Regions with lower SDI, particularly in South Asia, are anticipated to witness substantial increases in thyroid cancer incidence from 2020 to 2030. The overall disease burden is expected to rise, especially in countries with low to middle SDI, reflecting broader socio-economic and health care shifts. Conclusions: This study highlights significant regional and gender-specific variations in thyroid cancer, with notable increases in incidence rates, particularly in areas like South Asia. These trends suggest improvements in diagnostic capabilities and the influence of socio-economic factors. Additionally, the observed decline in mortality rates across various regions reflects advancements in thyroid cancer management. The findings underline the critical importance of regionally tailored prevention strategies, robust cancer registries, and public health initiatives to address the evolving landscape of thyroid cancer and mitigate health disparities globally.

Global burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence and influencing factors study 1990-2019: analysis of the global burden of disease study.

INTRODUCTION: Widespread concern exists in today's world regarding self-harm and interpersonal violence. This study to analyze the changes in temporal trends and spatial patterns of risk factors and burdens of self-harm and interpersonal violence using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS: Temporal trends in self-harm and interpersonal violence were initially summarized using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Data were compiled and visualized to delineate changes in disease burden and factors influencing self-harm and interpersonal violence from 1990 to 2019, stratified by gender, age and GBD region. RESULTS: In 2019, the DALY rates of self-harm were 424.7(95% UI 383.25, 466.93). Over the period from 1999 to 2019, self-harm exhibited an overall decreasing trend, with the EAPC of -1.5351 (95% CI -1.6194, -1.4507), -2.0205 (95% CI -2.166, -1.8740) and -2.0605 (95% CI -2.2089, -1.9119), respectively. In contrast, the incidence rate of interpersonal violence was significantly higher than self-harm, with a rate of 413.44 (95% UI 329.88, 502.37) per 100,000 population. Mortality and DALYs of interpersonal violence were lower than those of self-harm, at 5.22 (95% UI 4.87, 5.63) and 342.43 (95% UI 316.61, 371.55). Disease burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence varied by gender, age groups and region. Specific risk factors showed that alcohol use, high temperature and drug use were the main risk factors for self-harm, while alcohol use, intimate partner violence and high temperature were associated with interpersonal violence. Low temperature was a common protective factor for both self-harm and interpersonal violence. The burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence was attributed to different factors influences in different SDI regions. CONCLUSIONS: The study explored temporal trends and spatial distribution of the global disease burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence, emphasizing the significant impact of factors such as alcohol use, temperature, and drug use on disease burden. Further research and policy actions are needed to interpret recent changes of disease burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence, and dedicated efforts should be implemented to devise evidence-based interventions and policies to curtail risk factors and protect high-risk groups.

Global, regional, and national burden of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for facial fractures from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Facial fractures are common injuries causing cosmetic, functional, and psychological damage. The purpose of this study was to assess the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). METHODS: Detailed data for the disease burden of facial fractures were obtained from online available public data (Global Health Data Exchange) derived from the GBD study. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by country, region, age, gender, sociodemographic index (SDI), and cause. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the disease burden and quantify the trends over time. The main causes of facial fractures in different years and ages were assessed. RESULTS: Globally, there were 8.9 million incident cases, 1.5 million cases prevalent cases, and 98.1 thousand years YLDs in 2019. Compared with 1990, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs increased, while ASIR (EAPC, - 0.47; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], - 0.57 to - 0.37), ASPR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.46 to - 0.31), ASYR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.47 to - 0.32) showed a downward trend. The high SDI region held the highest ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR both in 1990 and 2019, such as New Zealand, Slovenia, and Australia. The burden was higher in men than in women from 1990 to 2019, while the ASRs in women exceeded that of men in the elderly. The ASIR peaked in the young adult group, however, the ASPR and ASYR increased with age. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of facial fractures. CONCLUSIONS: Facial fractures continue to cause a heavy burden on public health worldwide. More targeted strategies need to be established to control the burden of facial fractures.

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

Purpose: Given the rising prevalence of high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) over the past three decades, it is crucial to assess its global, national, and regional impact on chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aims to investigate the burden of CKD attributed to HFPG and its distribution across various levels. Methods and materials: The data for this research was sourced from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. To estimate the burden of CKD attributed to HFPG, we utilized DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. The burden was measured using age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate. Correlation analysis was performed using the Spearman rank order correlation method. Temporal trends were analyzed by estimating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Results: Globally in 2019, there were a total of 487.97 thousand deaths and 13,093.42 thousand DALYs attributed to CKD attributed to HFPG, which represent a substantial increase of 153.8% and 120%, respectively, compared to 1990. Over the period from 1990 to 2019, the burden of CKD attributable to HFPG increased across all regions, with the highest increases observed in regions with high socio-demographic index (SDI) and middle SDI. Regions with lower SDI exhibited higher ASMR and age-standardized DALYs (ASDR) compared to developed nations at the regional level. Additionally, the EAPC values, which indicate the rate of increase, were significantly higher in these regions compared to developed nations. Notably, high-income North America, belonging to the high SDI regions, experienced the greatest increase in both ASMR and ASDR over the past three decades. Furthermore, throughout the years from 1990 to 2019, males bore a greater burden of CKD attributable to HFPG. Conclusion: With an increasing population and changing dietary patterns, the burden of CKD attributed to HFPG is expected to worsen. From 1990 to 2019, males and developing regions have experienced a more significant burden. Notably, the EAPC values for both ASMR and ASDR were higher in males and regions with lower SDI (excluding high-income North America). This emphasizes the pressing requirement for effective interventions to reduce the burden of CKD attributable to HFPG.

Using Mendelian randomization provides genetic insights into potential targets for sepsis treatment.

Sepsis is recognized as a major contributor to the global disease burden, but there is a lack of specific and effective therapeutic agents. Utilizing Mendelian randomization (MR) methods alongside evidence of causal genetics presents a chance to discover novel targets for therapeutic intervention. MR approach was employed to investigate potential drug targets for sepsis. Pooled statistics from IEU-B-4980 comprising 11,643 cases and 474,841 controls were initially utilized, and the findings were subsequently replicated in the IEU-B-69 (10,154 cases and 454,764 controls). Causal associations were then validated through colocalization. Furthermore, a range of sensitivity analyses, including MR-Egger intercept tests and Cochran's Q tests, were conducted to evaluate the outcomes of the MR analyses. Three drug targets (PSMA4, IFNAR2, and LY9) exhibited noteworthy MR outcomes in two separate datasets. Notably, PSMA4 demonstrated not only an elevated susceptibility to sepsis (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.20-1.45, p = 1.66E-08) but also exhibited a robust colocalization with sepsis (PPH4 = 0.74). According to the present MR analysis, PSMA4 emerges as a highly encouraging pharmaceutical target for addressing sepsis. Suppression of PSMA4 could potentially decrease the likelihood of sepsis.

Unveiling the lead exposure attributed burden in Iran from 1990 to 2019 through the lens of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

This study aimed to investigate the estimated burden attributed to lead exposure (LE), at the national and subnational levels from 1990 to 2019 in Iran. The burden attributed to LE was determined through the estimation of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) using the comparative risk assessment method of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study presenting as age-standardized per 100,000 person year (PY) with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UI). Furthermore, the burden of each disease were recorded independently. Eventually, the age-standardized YLLs, DALYs, deaths and YLDs rates attributed to LE demonstrated a decrease of 50.7%, 48.9%, 38.0%, and 36.4%, respectively, from 1990 to 2019. The most important causes of LE burden are divided into two acute and chronic categories: acute, mainly causes mental disorders (DALYs rate of 36.0 in 2019), and chronic, results in cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) (DALYs rate of 391.8) and chronic kidney diseases (CKDs) (DALYs rate of 26.6), with CVDs bearing the most significant burden. At the sub-national level, a decrease in burden was evident in most provinces; moreover, low and low-middle SDI provinces born the highest burden. The burden increased mainly by ageing and was higher in males than females. It was concluded that although the overall decrease in the burden; still it is high, especially in low and low-middle SDI provinces, in advanced ages and in males. Among IDID, CKDs and CVDs that are the most important causes of LE-attributed burden in Iran; CVDs bear the highest burden.

Correlation between socioeconomic indices and epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019 year: a global ecologic study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of thyroid cancer as the most common type of endocrine gland malignancy has risen more significantly than any malignancies in recent years. Estimated new cases of thyroid cancer in the United States in 2024 were 12,500 and 31,520 for men and women, respectively, and estimated deaths were 1,180 for women and 990 for men. Indices of socio-economic have been commonly used to measure the development of countries. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the correlation between indices of socioeconomic status and epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer throughout the world. In addition, this study has compared two indices of human development and a socio-demographic index. METHOD: This worldwide ecological study used data on thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, human development index (HDI), and sociodemographic index (SDI) between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). We evaluated the correlation between incidence and mortality rates with socioeconomic indices by using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Furthermore, for the first time, the generalized additive model (GAM) was employed for modeling. The statistical software R, version 4.2.2, was used to conduct all statistical analyses. RESULTS: The correlation between the incidence of thyroid cancer and the HDI was significant and positive (r = 0.47, p-value < 0.001). While the correlation between thyroid cancer mortality and HDI was not statistically significant (r = 0.01, p-value = 0.076). Besides, the incidence of thyroid cancer was significantly positively correlated with SDI (r = 0.48, p-value < 0.001). The multiple GAM showed that for one unit increase in HDI, the risk of thyroid cancer was increased by 2.1 times (RR = 2.1, 95%CI = 2.04 to 2.19), and for one unit increase in SDI, the risk of thyroid cancer was shown to increase by 2.2 times. (RR = 2.2, 95%CI = 2.19 to 2.35). CONCLUSION: It has been evident that countries with higher incidence of thyroid cancer display higher socioeconomic indices. While, countries with higher socioeconomic indices, report lower mortality rates. However, based on the modeling results, it can be concluded that the SDI is slightly more useful in this regard. Therefore, examining the epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer by socio-economic indices can be useful to reflect a clear image of the distribution of this cancer in each country, and can be used for planning cancer prevention strategies.

Global, regional and national epidemiology of allergic disorders in children from 1990 to 2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

OBJECTIVE: This modelling study aimed to estimate the burden for allergic diseases in children during a period of 30 years. DESIGN: Population-based observational study. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The data on the incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for childhood allergic diseases, such as atopic dermatitis (AD) and asthma, were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 online database. This data set spans various groups, including different regions, ages, genders and Socio-Demographic Indices (SDI), covering the period from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, there were approximately 81 million children with asthma and 5.6 million children with AD worldwide. The global incidence of asthma in children was 20 million. Age-standardised incidence rates showed a decrease of 4.17% for asthma, from 1075.14 (95% uncertainty intervals (UI), 724.63 to 1504.93) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 1030.33 (95% UI, 683.66 to 1449.53) in 2019. Similarly, the rates for AD decreased by 5.46%, from 594.05 (95% UI, 547.98 to 642.88) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 561.61 (95% UI, 519.03 to 608.29) in 2019. The incidence of both asthma and AD was highest in children under 5 years of age, gradually decreasing with age. Interestingly, an increase in SDI was associated with a rise in the incidence of both conditions. However, the mortality rate and DALYs for asthma showed a contrasting trend. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past three decades, there has been a worldwide increase in new asthma and AD cases, even though mortality rates have significantly declined. However, the prevalence of these allergic diseases among children varies considerably across regions, countries and age groups. This variation highlights the need for precise prevalence assessments. These assessments are vital in formulating effective strategies for prevention and treatment.

Global burden of rheumatoid arthritis among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years: A trend analysis study from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: In recent decades, there has been a global increase in the burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) among adolescents and young adults (AYAs), making it a significant public health issue. However, our understanding of the disease burden, harm, and influencing factors of RA in this population remains insufficient. This study aimed to assess the trends in RA burden among AYAs aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: Incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate per 100,000 population, as well as average annual percentage changes (AAPCs), of RA among individuals aged 10-24 years were reported globally, regionally, and nationally based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019). These global trends were further analyzed by age, sex, and Sociodemographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to determine the year in which the most significant changes in global trends occurred. RESULTS: Globally, the incidence of RA among AYAs increased from 4.98 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 5.41 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an AAPCs of 0.29 (95%CI: 0.26, 0.32, p < 0.001). The most significant increase occurred in 2000, while the most significant decrease occurred in 2014. The prevalence increased from 34.11 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 36.34 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an AAPCs of 0.22 (95%CI: 0.19, 0.24, p<0.001); The most significant increase was observed in 2000, and the most significant decrease occurred in 2014. DALYs rate with RA were 5.96 per 100,000 population in 1990 and 5.79 per 100,000 population in 2019 for AYAs, with an average decrease of 0.1 years per year (AAPCs = -0.1, 95%CI: -0.2, -0.01, p = 0.04). In terms of gender, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate were higher for females compared to males during the same period. Regarding age, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate increased with increasing age. Based on the SDI quintile, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate of RA were highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI from 1990 to 2019. However, the relationship between incidence and SDI is non-linear. In terms of regions, Tropical Latin America exhibited the highest incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate, while Andean Latin America experienced the most rapid increase in incidence and prevalence. Southern Latin America saw the fastest growth in DALYs rate, whereas Southern Sub-Saharan Africa witnessed the most significant decline. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the study revealed an overall increase in the incidence and prevalence of RA among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) over the past three decades, while DALYs rate remained relatively stable. Furthermore, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate of RA were found to increase with age. Fortunately, recent proactive preventive measures and treatment methods have shown promising results. Moving forward, it is crucial to prioritize the female population and AYAs patients in order to further alleviate the global burden of RA.

Analysis and prediction of central nervous system tumor burden in China during 1990-2030.

Central nervous system (CNS) tumors, due to their unique locations, pose a serious threat to human health and present challenges to modern medicine. These tumors exhibit notable epidemiological characteristics across various ethnicities, regions, and age groups. This study investigated the trend of disease burden of CNS tumors in China from 1990-2019 and predicted the incidence and death rate from 2020-2030. Employing data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we utilized key indicators to scrutinize the disease burden associated with CNS tumors in China. The analysis employed the Joinpoint model to track the trend in disease burden, calculating both the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Additionally, the Matlab software facilitated the creation of a gray model to forecast the incidence and death rate of CNS tumors in China spanning from 2020 to 2030." In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence rate, death rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CNS tumors in China were among the high level in the world. The standardized prevalence rate and DALYs of CNS tumors in China residents showed a stable fluctuation trend with age; however, age-standardized death and incidence rate demonstrated a generally upward trend with age. In China, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of males were lower than those for female residents, while the age-standardized death rate and DALYs among males surpassed those of females. From 1990-2019, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of CNS tumors in China exhibited an increasing trend. The age-standardized death rate and DALYs showed a contrasting trend. According to the gray model's prediction, incidence rate of CNS tumors would continue rising while the death rate is expected to decline in China from 2020-2023. The burden of CNS tumors in China has shown an upward trajectory, posing significant challenges to their treatment. It is necessary to pay attention to tertiary prevention, start from the perspective of high-risk groups and high-risk factors to reduce the burden of disease, and achieve "early detection, early diagnosis, and early treatment".

Global, regional, and national burden of blindness and vision loss attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019, and forecasts to 2030: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

AIMS: To systematically clarify the spatiotemporal trends, and age-sex-specific blindness and vision loss (BVL) burden due to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) from 1990 to 2019, and project this burden over the next decade. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained the number and rate of years lived with disability (YLDs) for the BVL burden attributable to HFPG by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and location between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated to assess the temporal trends of HFPG-attributable BVL burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the HFPG-attributable BVL burden. RESULTS: In 2019, the global number and age-standardized rate (ASR) for YLDs of BVL attributable to HFPG were 673.13 (95% UI: 159.52 to 1565.34) thousand and 8.44 (95% UI: 2.00 to 19.63) per 100,000 people, respectively. The highest burdens were found in Oceania, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, and the BVL burden due to HFPG was higher in the elderly and lower SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global ASR of HFPG-attributable BVL gradually increased with AAPC (95% CI) being 0.80 (0.74 to 0.86). In addition, the HFPG-attributable BVL burden will slightly increase in the future decade. CONCLUSIONS: The HFPG remains the important cause of BVL worldwide, placing a substantial disease burden. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized burden of BVL due to HFPG increased, and will consistently increase in the future decade, particularly in the elderly and in regions with middle SDI or below.

Cuantificación de la carga de la enfermedad renal crónica en América Latina: una epidemia invisibilizada / Quantification of the burden of chronic kidney disease in Latin America: an invisible epidemic / Quantificação da carga da doença renal crônica na América Latina: uma epidemia invisível

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. 1) Describir la carga de la enfermedad renal crónica en países de América Latina entre 1990 y 2019 y, 2) Estimar la correlación entre los años de vida saludables perdidos (AVISA) con el índice sociodemográfico y el índice de acceso y calidad de salud. Métodos. Análisis secundario y ecológico, basado en el Estudio de la Carga Global de Enfermedades, Lesiones y Factores de Riesgo 2019. Se reportaron las tasas estandarizadas de mortalidad, años perdidos por muertes prematuras (APMP), años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD) y AVISA por enfermedad renal crónica para 1990, 2005 y 2019. La información se desagregó por países, sexo, grupos etarios y subcausas. Resultados. Entre 1990 y 2019, la carga de la enfermedad renal crónica aumentó considerablemente en los países de América Latina, convirtiéndose en una de las principales causas de mortalidad y de AVISA. La tasa estandarizada de AVISA por enfermedad renal crónica se debió, en gran medida, al peso de las muertes prematuras más que a la discapacidad. En 2019, Nicaragua, El Salvador, México y Guatemala se destacaron por tener las tasas estandarizadas de mortalidad por enfermedad renal crónica y de AVISA más elevadas, mientras que Uruguay presentó las más bajas. Conclusiones. La enfermedad renal crónica es una epidemia invisibilizada que representa una carga excesiva, en mortalidad y AVISA, para los países de América Latina. Es indispensable aunar esfuerzos regionales para enfrentar la enfermedad, además de impulsar acciones locales que atiendan las particularidades de cada país.

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. 1) Describe the burden of chronic kidney disease in Latin American countries between 1990 and 2019; and 2) Estimate the correlation between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the Sociodemogra- phic Index and the Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Methods. Secondary and ecological analysis, based on the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study. Standardized mortality rates, years of life lost to due to premature death (YLLs),years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLDs) and DALYs due to chronic kidney disease were reported for 1990, 2005, and 2019. Information was disaggregated by country, sex, age group, and sub-cause. Results. Between 1990 and 2019, the burden of chronic kidney disease increased considerably in Latin Ame- rican countries, becoming one of the main causes of mortality and DALYs. The standardized rate of DALYs for chronic kidney disease was largely due to the weight of premature deaths rather than disability. In 2019, Nica- ragua, El Salvador, Mexico, and Guatemala had the highest standardized mortality rates for chronic kidney disease and DALYs, while Uruguay had the lowest. Conclusions. Chronic kidney disease is an invisible epidemic that places an excessive burden in terms of mortality and DALYs on Latin American countries. It is essential to join forces to tackle the disease in the region, and promote local actions that address the particularities of each country.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. 1) Descrever a carga da doença renal crônica nos países da América Latina entre 1990 e 2019 e 2) estimar a correlação entre os anos de vida saudável perdidos (AVISA), o índice sociodemográfico e o índice de acesso e qualidade da saúde. Métodos. Análise secundária e ecológica, baseada no estudo Carga Global de Doenças, Lesões e Fatores de Risco 2019 (GBD). Foram informadas taxas de mortalidade padronizadas, anos de vida perdidos por morte prematura (AVP) por morte prematura, anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade (AVAI) e AVISA devido a doença renal crônica de 1990, 2005 e 2019. Os dados foram desagregados por país, sexo, faixas etárias e causas subjacentes. Resultados. Entre 1990 e 2019, a carga de doença renal crônica aumentou consideravelmente nos países da América Latina, tornando-se uma das principais causas de mortalidade e de AVISA. A taxa padronizada de AVISA devido à doença renal crônica foi influenciada em grande parte pelo peso das mortes prematuras, e não da incapacidade. Em 2019, Nicarágua, El Salvador, México e Guatemala se destacaram por terem as maiores taxas padronizadas de mortalidade por doença renal crônica e AVISA, ao passo que Uruguai teve as menores taxas. Conclusões. A doença renal crônica é uma epidemia invisível, que representa uma carga excessiva em ter- mos de mortalidade e de AVISA para os países da América Latina. É essencial unir esforços na região para combater a doença, além de promover ações locais que atendam às particularidades de cada país.

Unlocking the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease.

Red meat consumption is associated with an elevated risk of mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In contrast, forage fish, as highly nutritious, environmentally friendly, affordable, and the most abundant fish species in the ocean, are receiving increasing interest from a global food system perspective. However, little research has examined the impact of replacing red meat with forage fish in the global diet on diet-related NCDs. METHODS: We based our study on datasets of red meat projections in 2050 for 137 countries and forage fish catches. We replaced the red meat consumption in each country with forage fish (from marine habitats), without exceeding the potential supply of forage fish. We used a comparative risk assessment framework to investigate how such substitutions could reduce the global burden of diet-related NCDs in adults. RESULTS: The results of our study show that forage fish may replace only a fraction (approximately 8%) of the world's red meat due to its limited supply, but it may increase global daily per capita fish consumption close to the recommended level. Such a substitution could avoid 0.5-0.75 million deaths and 8-15 million disability-adjusted life years, concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. Forage fish as an alternative to red meat could double (or more) the number of deaths that could be avoided by simply reducing red meat consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that forage fish is a promising alternative to red meat. Policies targeting the allocation of forage fish to regions where they are needed, such as the Global South, could be more effective in maximising the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease.